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The Current Geopolitical Nexus behind the War in Ukraine
Russia's Evolving Alliances, NATO’s Watergate, and the Gathering Storms of Transformation
A consensus among Chinese scholars, both from Asia and America, is that Germany/EU has potentially irreversibly distanced itself from Russia, while China has established stronger ties with Russia. This connection is seen as highly advantageous due to the two countries' economies complementing each other and Russia's solid relationships with the Global South/Global Majority, which can provide benefits and assistance to Beijing.
Meanwhile, a few foreign policy analysts aligned with Atlanticist views are actively attempting to reshape the narrative concerning NATO's relationship with Russia, utilizing the principles of pragmatic diplomacy.
The new perspective argues that it is strategically unwise for Washington to anticipate a victory over Moscow, emphasizing that NATO is grappling with a sense of weariness in supporting conflicts, as the situation in Ukraine, where tensions are escalating, undermines its credibility.
In simpler terms, the overall credibility of NATO is diminishing significantly, particularly due to its evident setbacks in the Ukraine conflict, which are painfully evident to a global audience.
Furthermore, the concept of “donor fatigue” alludes to the potential consequences of a major and unsuccessful war. As highlighted by military analyst Andrei Martyanov, the planning within NATO is perceived as lacking credibility, and this has led to feelings of envy and jealousy.
A viable pathway moving forward entails that Moscow refrains from negotiating with NATO, essentially viewed as an extension of the Pentagon. Instead, Russia could propose a security pact to individual European nations, rendering their NATO affiliation unnecessary. This would ensure security for participating nations while alleviating external pressures from Washington.
It is plausible that major European powers might entertain this proposition, though certain countries like Poland, colloquially referred to as the “hyena of Europe,” and the Baltic States, often likened to chihuahuas, may be less inclined to do so.
Simultaneously, China could extend peace treaties to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, potentially leading to the dissolution of a significant portion of the extensive US network of military bases.
However, the challenge persists: subordinate states lack the autonomy and capability to negotiate peace agreements. Privately, German business leaders express confidence that Berlin may eventually defy Washington and engage in commerce with the Russia-China strategic partnership, recognizing its benefits for Germany.
Nonetheless, the fundamental principle remains unmet: for a subordinate state to attain recognition as a sovereign entity, a crucial step is to dismantle key aspects of the US Empire of Bases and expel US military personnel.
Iraq has been striving to achieve this objective for years, unsuccessfully. Notably, a substantial portion of Syria remains under US occupation, despite the United States failing in its proxy conflict against Damascus largely due to Russian intervention.
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THE UKRAINE PROJECT AS A MATTER OF EXISTENTIAL CONFLICT
Russia finds itself compelled to engage in a battle against a neighboring nation and kin whose loss is simply not tolerable, especially considering its status as a nuclear and hypersonic power.
Although Moscow may experience a degree of strategic setback, regardless of the ultimate outcome, it is the United States that, according to the perspective of Chinese scholars, could be viewed as committing one of its most significant strategic blunders since the establishment of its global dominance. This misstep involves transforming the Ukraine Project into a conflict of existential proportions, thereby entangling the entire American empire and its subordinate states in a Total War scenario against Russia.
This is the underlying reason for the absence of peace negotiations and the rejection of even a temporary ceasefire. The architects of US foreign policy, driven by Straussian neoconservative ideology, envision only one possible conclusion: an unconditional surrender by Russia.
In the not-too-distant past, Washington could withstand defeats in its discretionary military endeavors, such as Vietnam and Afghanistan. However, it cannot afford to suffer defeat in a conflict with Russia. As this eventuality looms on the horizon, a profound upheaval among the vassal states is inevitable.
The path ahead is abundantly clear: China and the BRICS+ coalition, set to expand following the upcoming summit in South Africa, will intensify efforts to erode the dominance of the US dollar. This process will unfold with or without India's participation.
The emergence of an immediate BRICS currency is not imminent, as astutely noted within this discussion. The approach taken by BRICS+ will evolve progressively, initially focusing on enhancing cross-border settlement mechanisms—an aspect highlighted by figures such as Putin and Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina. This trajectory is expected to eventually lead to the development of an entirely new currency, albeit a considerable distance down the road.
Likely taking the form of a trade instrument rather than a fully sovereign currency akin to the Euro, this new currency is anticipated to serve as a competitive counterpart to the US dollar, primarily within the consortium of BRICS+ countries. Its purpose would be to establish an alternative avenue for trade, effectively bypassing the prevailing dominance of the US dollar-based economic framework.
A crucial query arises: How much longer can the artificial economy of the dominant empire endure amidst the comprehensive geoeconomic conflict?
EMERGING TRADE BATTLES
On the front of electronic technology, the dominant power is employing unrestrained measures to establish a global reliance, securing exclusive intellectual property rights. This approach involves extracting economic gains through elevated prices for advanced technology components such as computer chips, communication systems, and military equipment.
Presently, tangible actions are somewhat limited, primarily manifesting as restrictions on Taiwan's supply of vital chips to China. Additionally, the endeavor includes urging Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to expedite the construction of a chip manufacturing facility in Arizona. However, TSMC's Chairman, Mark Liu, has highlighted challenges in finding specialized personnel for equipment installation in a semiconductor-grade environment. Consequently, the highly anticipated TSMC chip plant in Arizona is not expected to commence production before 2025.
At the forefront of the dominant power's strategy is a resounding demand that Germany and the European Union enforce a Trade Iron Curtain against the Russia-China strategic partnership and their allies, aiming to “de-risk” trade activities.
As expected, the intellectual circles within the United States, specifically Think Tankland, have responded with fervor. Voices from institutions such as the American Enterprise Institute advocate for a more drastic approach, suggesting that economic de-risking alone is insufficient. Instead, they champion a complete rupture with China.
This approach aligns with Washington's broader disposition, encompassing the flouting of international trade regulations and legal norms. It portrays various forms of trade, financial exchanges, and SWIFT transactions as threats to American economic and military dominion, branding them as “national security threats.”
Looking ahead, the projected pattern does not involve China imposing trade sanctions on the European Union, which remains a principal trading partner for Beijing. Rather, it is the United States that appears poised to unleash a barrage of sanctions on nations daring to defy the US-engineered trade embargo.
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RUSSIA'S CONVERGENCE WITH DPRK AND PENETRATING DEEP INTO AFRICA
In the recent span of time, the geopolitical chessboard has witnessed two pivotal and transformative maneuvers: the highly significant visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), and the convocation of the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg.
Sergei Shoigu's reception in Pyongyang was nothing short of a spectacle, evoking the reception typically accorded to a rock star. His one-on-one encounter with Kim Jong-Un has fostered an atmosphere of mutual goodwill, thereby elevating the prospects of North Korea potentially affiliating with a multilateral organization advancing the principles of a multipolar world.
This outcome might conceivably manifest within an extended framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). A conceivable initial step could involve the formulation of a DPRK-EAEU free trade agreement, akin to those already established with nations like Vietnam and Cuba.
Undoubtedly, Russia occupies a prominent position within the EAEU, affording it the ability to circumvent sanctions concerning the DPRK. In contrast, entities like BRICS+, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are more circumspect. Moscow's foremost objectives include propelling the development of its Far Eastern region, deepening integration with both Koreas, and enhancing the Northern Sea Route, commonly referred to as the Arctic Silk Road. Within this framework, North Korea stands as a natural and complementary partner.
Inclusion of the DPRK within the EAEU fold would significantly augment investment from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This symbiotic relationship could potentially offer a layer of protection that Beijing currently lacks when investing in the DPRK, resulting in an exemplar of heightened integration between BRI and EAEU.
Russia's diplomatic maneuvers, orchestrated at the highest echelons, are resolute in easing the pressure surrounding the DPRK. This strategic shift possesses the potential to redefine the prevailing dynamics; envision a scenario where the sophisticated North Korean industrial-military complex intertwines with the Russia-China strategic partnership, leading to a profound recalibration of the Asia-Pacific paradigm.
The Russia-Africa summit held in St. Petersburg constitutes yet another transformative development that has left the Western mainstream media in a state of bewilderment. This gathering marked Russia's public affirmation of a comprehensive and strategic partnership encompassing the entirety of the African continent. Remarkably, this announcement transpired concurrently with the collective West's engagement in hybrid warfare and other adversarial actions against the Afro-Eurasian domain.
Vladimir Putin underscored Russia's dominant presence, commanding a significant 20% stake in the global wheat market. Impressively, over the initial six months of 2023, Russia had already exported a remarkable 10 million tons of grain to African nations. Furthermore, Russia has undertaken the commitment to supply substantial quantities of grain, ranging from 25,000 to 50,000 tons each, to Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Somalia, and Eritrea over the forthcoming 3–4 months, all at no cost.
Putin expounded upon an extensive spectrum of endeavors, spanning approximately 30 energy projects across Africa, the amplification of oil and gas exports, the pioneering application of nuclear technology in non-energy sectors like medicine, the initiation of a Russian industrial zone adjacent to the Suez Canal intended for exporting goods throughout Africa, and the enhancement of Africa's financial infrastructure, inclusive of integration with the Russian payment system.
Of paramount significance, he enthusiastically emphasized the strengthening of bonds between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Africa. An enlightening discussion on the forum panel, titled “EAEU-Africa: Exploring Collaborative Horizons,” delved into promising prospects that encompass closer continental connectivity with both BRICS and Asia. A surge of forthcoming free trade agreements may be on the horizon.
The breadth of the forum's agenda was undeniably remarkable. It featured insightful panels focused on themes of “de-neocolonialization,” such as “Attaining Technological Autonomy Through Collaborative Industry” and “Emergence of a New Global Order: Transitioning from Colonial Legacy to Sovereignty and Advancement.”
Naturally, deliberations surrounding the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) were also integral to the discourse. Key stakeholders, namely Russia, Iran, and India, converged to advocate for the crucial expansion of INSTC to encompass Africa, thereby bypassing NATO-adjacent coastal regions.
Simultaneously, while the vibrant discussions unfolded in St. Petersburg, the nation of Niger experienced a military coup. Though the ultimate outcomes are yet to crystallize, there is a high likelihood that Niger will align itself with neighboring Mali in reaffirming its foreign policy autonomy, disentangling from the influence of Paris. Furthermore, the French sphere of influence is witnessing a recalibration, notably evident in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Burkina Faso. In essence, a process of irreversible decolonization is underway, gradually sidelining France and Western powers across the Sahel region, one measured step at a time.
HEED THE WARNING
These intricate maneuvers on the geopolitical chessboard, spanning from the DPRK to Africa and the intensifying chip conflict against China, reverberate with equal significance as the impending, earth-shattering reckoning awaiting NATO in Ukraine. However, the astuteness extends beyond the purview of the Russia-China strategic partnership alone; it embraces key stakeholders across the Global South, the formidable majority of nations recognizing that Washington is systematically positioning Russia as a tactical adversary, priming the stage for a relentless Total War aimed squarely at China.
In the midst of this intricate dance, the tragedy unfurling in Donbass continues to engage the Empire, temporarily diverting its attention away from the resolute currents of the Asia-Pacific. Yet, even as the winds of change sweep through, Washington, steered by the radical ideologies of the Straussian neocon faction, finds itself ensnared within the grip of desperation, an affliction that dangerously augments its volatility.
Meanwhile, within the realm of the BRICS+ “jungle,” the engines of transformation are being revved, propelling the mechanisms essential for sidelining the fading dominion of the unipolar Western “garden.” As Europe teeters precariously on the precipice, its future compelled to sever ties with China, BRICS+, and the de facto Global Majority, an inexorable force gathers momentum.
Survey the horizon, and it requires no sage to decipher the trajectory of the steppes' winds–an unmistakable gust echoing with the ominous tread of the Pale Horses of Destruction. With measured steps, the chessboard braces for the impending trample, the tempest begins to howl, and the world teeters on a precipice of unprecedented transformation.
Europeans, go practice your new anthem (love how Switzerland is still a thing):
The true power to shape this world has always lain in your hands. Choose well!
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